The situation on the battlefield has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks, with Russian troops advancing in several directions at once. According to The New York Times, this gives Vladimir Putin reason to take a tough stance in negotiations and refuse any concessions in peace initiatives.
According to Finnish military analyst Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group, Russia has a clear advantage. Ukraine, he said, is not ready to capitulate, but appears exhausted enough for Moscow to make its own demands.
According to military maps, frontline testimony, and analyst comments, Russian troops have achieved success near Pokrovsk, have practically surrounded neighboring Myrnograd, are advancing in the southern regions of Zaporizhia, are approaching Kupyansk, and are increasing pressure in the Siversk area.
" The future looks very, very bleak for Ukraine. I don't see a clear way out of the situation ," Castelhelmi noted.
The Ukrainian military admits that since the fall the situation has begun to change not in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. UAV operator Igor told the publication that the defense "began to collapse from exhaustion." Russia is actively using Blyskavka drones and waves of mini-kamikazes - analogues of which Ukraine does not yet have in mass production.
Not only Pokrovsk is under threat
Russian forces are simultaneously pressing on Kostyantynivka, Lyman, and other key cities in the Donetsk region.
Captain Oleg Voitsekhovsky, whose unit is located near Lyman, noted that shelling and attacks continue constantly: " In the last two months, there has been an increase in the intensity of hostilities ."
The fighters of the 14th operational brigade of the National Guard add that Pokrovsk is turning into the epicenter of the tragedy: the streets are littered with the bodies of civilians and military personnel, and there is virtually no possibility of evacuation.
The offensive in Zaporizhia and the risks for Myrnograd
While Ukraine is shifting forces to hold Pokrovsk, Russia is trying to seize the opportunity on other sections of the front — in particular, in the southeastern part of the Zaporizhia region. Despite the transfer of reserves, the pace of the enemy's advance remains alarming, analysts note.
Myrnograd is under daily assault. According to one commander, drones have turned the roads into death traps:
“ If we have three people, they have 30. How many men they have is simply unreal .”
Winter may slow both sides down somewhat, but the Russian Federation continues to wage a war of attrition, having significant mobilization resources.
" Russia has committed itself to a war of attrition and is now trying to slowly and militarily break Ukraine ," says Castelhelmi.
