The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has published a forecast of the country's economic and social development for 2026–2028, according to which the average nominal salary will grow by approximately 5 thousand hryvnias each year. The relevant data is contained in Resolution No. 946, which provides for two development scenarios - optimistic and pessimistic.
Salaries under the optimistic scenario
In the event of a significant improvement in the security situation from 2026, the average monthly salary is projected to be at the level of:
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2026 — 30,240 UAH;
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2027 — 35,268 UAH;
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2028 — 39,758 UAH.
Salaries under the pessimistic scenario
If the active phase of the war continues, the forecast predicts:
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2026 — 30,032 UAH;
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2027 — 34,808 UAH;
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2028 — 39,436 UAH.
The government also expects the number of employed people aged 15–70 to increase from 13 million in 2026 to 13.2 million in 2028.
Unemployment forecast
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Optimistic scenario: growth from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, followed by a decline to 12.8% in 2028.
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Pessimistic scenario: gradual growth from 12.6% in 2026 to 12.8% in 2028.
The document notes that the main factor in the difference between the forecasts is the security situation in the country, which will determine the pace of economic and labor market recovery.
