Donbas has become a major geopolitical bargaining chip after US President Donald Trump launched a push to quickly broker a peace deal with Russia. According to The Times, Washington is trying to persuade Kyiv to agree to hand over all of Donbas to Moscow in order to declare a ceasefire by Christmas.
The region suffered the greatest destruction and loss of life after Russia's invasion in 2014 and subsequent large-scale offensive in 2022. The fate of Mariupol was particularly tragic, where, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russian bombing killed at least 20,000 civilians.
According to media reports, the Kremlin is not considering ending hostilities without a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas, including the fortified cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Trump, for his part, expects to end the war by Christmas and is giving Kyiv a few days to respond on territorial concessions.
Ukraine's constitution does not allow the transfer of territory without a nationwide referendum, which is virtually impossible to hold during a war. However, a referendum would not be formally necessary if the authorities simply ordered the troops to withdraw from the region. This is the scenario that, as the publication notes, is of greatest concern among Ukrainian experts.
Mykola Beleskov, an analyst at the “Return Alive” foundation, believes that some of the military might not comply with the order to retreat, which creates risks of internal destabilization. He emphasizes that the demand to withdraw without a fight will be perceived as a national humiliation by many defenders. According to him, the battles for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk could cost Russia tens of thousands of lives, and retreating without resistance would have serious consequences for Ukraine’s defense in the future.
Beleskov also warns that even the transfer of Donbas is unlikely to stop the Kremlin's aggression. According to the expert, Moscow seeks not only territories, but also a change in Kyiv's political course, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and limiting its army. Therefore, any "peace plans" that involve concessions can be used by Russia for further offensive.
Zelensky's negotiating position is complicated by the domestic situation. After the corruption scandal that led to the resignation of the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, Western partners are closely monitoring the stability of the Ukrainian government. Despite this, according to media reports, there have been no signals of a change in Kyiv's negotiating position. Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko notes that Yermak's political influence was much less than previously thought.
A separate point in the American plan is to hold presidential elections in Ukraine within 100 days. Trump has said that delaying the elections means “lack of democracy,” but Zelensky insists that voting is possible within 60-90 days, provided that proper security and support from partners are in place.
Former Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who now lives in exile, believes that Putin is obsessed with the idea of complete control over Donbas and seeks international recognition of his conquests. He is convinced that for the Russian president it is a matter of demonstrating strength and avoiding the impression of weakness.
According to experts, the pressure on Ukraine with demands for territorial concessions does not cease, but such conditions carry risks for both the security of the state and the unity of society. Moscow continues to insist on a scenario that would mean the actual surrender of Kyiv in the east.
