2024 was another year when Ukraine faced horrible demographic statistics. Records for mortality, growth of negative natural growth and migration were noted. Ukrainian analyst Alexei Kush explained what it threatens Ukraine.
Terrible statistics.
In 2024, mortality in Ukraine was 495 thousand, and the birth rate is 177 thousand, ie a gap is 2.8 times. The natural negative growth of the population (yes, this term is used in demography) was 318 thousand people last year.
For the second year in a row, mortality is at the same level, practically without changing.
But already low birth rates in Ukraine fell by almost 6% (minus 11 thousand births).
Given migration abroad and occupation of territories, the mortality -related mortality is now at least 100,000 per year. This indicator by depth of demographic impact can be compared to the continuous coronavirus epidemic.
Demographic, Ukraine since 2020 in a conditional pandemic. Five years of "non -natural reduction" of the population, if you can say so.
If the war is a national tragedy, then demography is a national disaster.
Which is exacerbated by migration from the country.
According to the NBU, another 500,000 people left the country in 2024. In 2025, this figure can be higher.
That is, in the total, Ukraine in the context of human capital lost more than 800,000 people last year: 500,000 left and only 177 thousand people were born as much.
A few more years of such a track and the Renaissance point will remain far behind.
She is already behind, but there is still a chance. Little but a chance.
