US President Special Representative Donald Trump for Ukraine and Russia Kit Kelloggus said that in order to resolve the war, both countries must make concessions. According to him, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky "has already made it clear that he would soften his position on territories", and Russian leader Vladimir Putin should also take a step back.
In your opinion, why has Zelensky's rhetoric changed so much in the last month? Instead of a ban on negotiations with Putin - "We are ready" instead of "not a word without Ukraine!" - "We also wanted to take part" instead of "NATO and point" - "Give at least some guarantees"?
He does not want to conflict with the Trump administration. At this stage, it is obvious that Trump wants to negotiate as soon as possible, to decide everything, to declare the end of the war, and thus to say that he is a well done, and quickly solved the problem created by Joseph Baiden's administration. He pays great attention to it. And if in this situation Ukraine takes a position that will be dissonance with the position of Trump, then he will simply say that Kiev does not want to solve anything, so let him understand his problems himself. This scenario, to put it mildly, is not favorable, so so far the Ukrainian authorities are playing Trump. The calculation, I think, is simple enough, - faced with real negotiations with Putin, Trump and his team will realize that it is unprofitable, and then you will have to change policies, perhaps in some more favorable for Ukraine the key to Ukraine. It is not the fact that it will be, but this scenario looks better than to become immediately unhappy in Trump's minds, and thus to close the opportunity for any US assistance for four years.
I think that at this stage it is important for Trump to negotiate between Ukraine and Russia and achieve results. Trump, obviously, is convinced that he as a great negotiator just collect everyone, will solve everything immediately.
Trump's environment regularly indicates that it is necessary to hold elections in Ukraine as soon as possible. The other day, Trump's Rupor Taer Carlson pedalized the topic of "Zelensky's illegitimacy." Does this media-dinner mean that in the eyes of Trump's administration Zelensky is illegitimate, and the US intends to sell the elections so that only their winner signed the necessary documents with the Russian Federation?
I would emphasize that Trump personally about the legitimacy of Zelensky or the need for elections did not speak. Carlson said the illegitimacy. It is advisable to hold an election by the end of the year, especially if you manage to reach any ceasefire agreements, Kellologo said in a small interview. Therefore, it is difficult to say how official this position is. Since Trump has recently stressed that he plans to negotiate with Ukraine in the face of Zelensky and Russia, it is obvious that he does not see any problems with the Ukrainian leader. And Kellog's statement may well be a praise of Russia in response to Putin's words, which they say if you consider Zelensky illegitimate, then we can discuss the issues of elections.
The Trump administration wants the elections to take place by the end of the year. But Zelensky has repeatedly said that there would be no elections by the end of the war. Does this mean that Zelensky will refuse to hold elections, is it a real option for freezing hostilities so that Ukraine can hold an election?
There is a lot of “if”. I think Zelensky will emphasize that the election requires a real cease ceasefire and security guarantee. It is fair enough. We do not know that the Trump administration will say. We do not know what options they will offer. We do not know what Russia will agree, for example. It is difficult to predict. But I think there will be an emphasis on the need for safety guarantees for the election, and most likely, after that, the question of the election can go to a dead end, because no one will provide these security guarantees. Theoretically, everything is possible, but I think that when it comes to practical discussion, there will be too many questions.
Kelloggus stated that Zelensky "made it clear that he would soften his position" and that Putin would also have to soften his position for negotiations. What concessions did Zelensky make a willingness to go and what kind of concessions will Putin be forced?
I think the Trump administration is set up to freeze the war on the front line. At the same time, they want the main burden to support this agreement and the restoration of Ukraine to take over Europe, and they would be a mediator from the outside. If Zelensky is sanctioned, he will require security guarantees in the form of placement of foreign troops, some guarantees of weapons, military assistance, etc. Whether the Trump administration will go to it, it is unclear. She just wants to freeze everything where it is, and put this question into a long drawer. It is clear that Russia will make a number of additional political requirements, one of which is the same elections. And not only the elections, for example, are the admission to this election of pro -Russian politicians, amnesty for them, Russian, and the like. This can also ask the prospects of such arrangements for some big question. So, so far, it is all the game around which everyone is trying to use what Trump wants to reach the arrangements quickly.
We cannot even know theoretically what everything can come to. Even if some of the most favorable agreements are not sanctioned by Russia, then it will still not have any sense. It is not excluded that even the most disadvantages from the point of view of Ukraine will eventually be rejected by Putin, because he can take a maximalist position, they say, he will still win everyone, and he does not need to negotiate with anyone. I think the Trump administration will not be able to force Putin to some serious concessions.
If Ukraine and the United States are spoiled, to what extent Europe can compensate for American financial, military, and humanitarian aid that has been received since 2022?
I think we need to focus on the fact that there will be no significant help from the US. This is not a matter of Ukrainian-American relations, it is Trump's position-not to distribute money outside the US that all money should remain in the country. Therefore, most likely, any significant military assistance, especially financial, language will definitely not go. In Europe, in principle, there are resources to assist Ukraine. But the question is how it will behave in new conditions, because there is already a threat to the EU and the US Commercial War. Theoretically, Europe could help Ukraine significantly. Practically - we do not know how it will respond to the new position of the United States, and how much it will be in this situation.
