Is a new attack on Kharkiv possible?

Western and Russian mass media talk about the Kremlin's intention to seize Kharkiv - the second most populous city in Ukraine. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Russian troops already tried to do this, but suffered a painful defeat.

Talks about a renewed attack on Kharkiv are fueled by Russian President Vladimir Putin's ambiguous statements about the creation of a "sanitary zone" along the Ukrainian-Russian border. According to the head of the Kremlin, this should protect Belgorod and the region from shelling from Ukraine and raids by Russian volunteer groups supported by the Ukrainian authorities.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky was even forced to comment on a possible Russian attack on Kharkiv.

The closest Ukrainian city to the Belgorod region is Kharkiv, which is only about 30 km from the border.

"I am not ready to talk now about what and how we should join. I do not rule out that at some point we will be forced to create a certain sanitary zone in today's territories subordinate to the Kyiv regime," Putin said on March 18, answering the question of whether Kharkiv Oblast's "joining the Russian Federation" is planned.

But does Russia have enough forces and means for such a large-scale operation?

As it was 2 years ago

Having launched an attack on Ukraine on the morning of February 24, 2022, Russian troops attacked in several directions at once. One of them was in Kharkiv.

The main shock forces here were Russian special forces and intelligence units. Ukrainian military analysts Mykhailo Zhirokhov and Andriy Kharuk in their book "Combat Chronicle of 2022" draw attention to the fact that the battle for Kharkiv had a number of features compared to other cities.

In particular, it was here that the Russians very actively used heavy artillery, for example, the Smerch rocket salvo fire system.

"In other directions, the use of artillery was quite limited - the Russians tried to capture cities and other key points on the move, by the actions of raiding groups," the authors of the book note.

Russian troops tried to attack the city "head-on", moving from the east through the Kharkiv district road. The defenders repelled all attacks, and on February 27, they completely destroyed a group of Russian special forces that tried to break into the city center.

After that, the Russians tried to surround the city from the south and north. In the south, they managed to take the city of Chuguiv under their control for a few days, but from the northern flank, they immediately lost the battle for the village of Dergachi and rolled back beyond the Kharkiv district.

In half a year, the Ukrainian Defense Forces will conduct a brilliant offensive operation and liberate almost the entire Kharkiv region, driving the Russian troops beyond the state border.

The attempt to capture Kharkiv failed not least because of the small number of Russian troops (approximately 16 battalion-tactical groups, i.e. 11-13 thousand fighters), the chaotic planning of offensive operations and the strong resistance of the Defense Forces and the local population.

However, after the retreat, Russia not only did not stop regular missile attacks on the Ukrainian city, but also significantly increased them over the past months.

According to the head of the city Igor Terekhov, almost all critical energy infrastructure, even private ones, has been destroyed in Kharkiv.

Preparation of a new offensive?

Western media began to write about the fact that Russia is probably preparing a powerful offensive in the Kharkiv direction since the beginning of the year. However, the Ukrainian authorities and the military command denied these fears, noting that there are no signs of the creation of a powerful strike group to attack the city directly.

The Armed Forces emphasized that since the end of autumn and almost all winter, Russia tried to break through the Ukrainian defenses near Kupyansk, which is 100 km east of Kharkiv. However, the Russians did not succeed in this, so there is no need to talk about the threat from this direction yet. Moreover, in recent days, Russian attacks on this part of the front have almost stopped.

In the second half of March, after Putin's re-election to the post of President of the Russian Federation, talks about preparations for an invasion of Kharkiv became relevant again. In particular, the "liberal" Russian publications "Meduza" and "Verstka" wrote about this.

The first, with reference to sources in the Russian government, stated that Vladimir Putin, probably after the election, determined the task of taking Kharkiv and after that gradually winding down the "special military operation" - that is how the war with Ukraine is called at the official level in Russia.

"Symbolically, this is also a victory. A city of a million people with a large Russian-speaking population," one of the interlocutors told the media.

Another edition - "Verstka" - reported that the Kremlin plans to mobilize 300,000 soldiers to the army in the near future specifically for the operation to capture Kharkiv.

Allegedly, according to the plan of the Russian authorities, most of the mobilized will be sent to cover the border in the Belgorod region, and the experienced fighters who will be released after that will be involved in the "Kharkiv operation".

According to the publication, which refers to informed sources, the Kremlin plans not to storm the Ukrainian city directly, but to surround it.

As of April 1, the Russian authorities have not announced a new wave of mobilization, which is necessary to create such a powerful strike group. But on March 30, President Putin signed a decree on the conscription of 150,000 Russians. This is the largest number in the last 8 years.

No new troops

It should be noted that the Ukrainian authorities also declare that they are preparing a "new powerful offensive" by Russia. But it does not indicate in which direction the enemy plans to do this.

In an interview with CBS, President Volodymyr Zelenskyi noted that Ukraine is preparing additional reserves to repel the Russian counteroffensive, which will begin in a few months.

"We share information with our partners and say that Russia will prepare counteroffensive actions, it could be the end of May or June," he said.

According to the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Pavlyuk, groups of 100,000 soldiers are already being created in Russia, which may be used in this new offensive.

"There is a possibility that by the beginning of the summer they may have certain forces to conduct appropriate offensive operations in one of the directions," he said, without specifying which direction he was talking about.

The military analyst of the "Information Resistance" group Kostyantyn Mashovets draws attention to the fact that at the beginning of the operation to encircle Kharkiv, Russian troops will need to reach the border Kotelva (a city at the intersection of Poltava, Sumy and Kharkiv regions) - Valka (district center 40 km west of Kharkiv ).

But there are two "powerful hubs of Ukrainian defense" on this path - the towns of Okhtyrka and Bogoduhiv.

Kostyantyn Mashovets estimates that just to carry out such a complex operation, Russia should use more than 1-2 combined armies, i.e. approximately more than 200,000 soldiers.

Another problem for the Kremlin is the southern flank of this offensive. Here, further movement to the regional center is impossible, as long as the Ukrainian troops reliably hold the bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Oskil River near Kupyansk. Only after a breakthrough in this area could the Russian army move further to Chuguyev and Pervomaysk to cover Kharkiv from the southern front.

Accordingly, according to Mashovets, it is unlikely that Russia will conduct a large-scale offensive operation on Kharkiv in the summer of this year. First of all, due to the current lack of the necessary number of trained troops, ammunition and material and technical means.

Military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that Russia will need to gather at least 500,000 soldiers plus a reserve of 100,000-150,000 to attack Kharkiv.

However, this is actually the number of the entire group of Russian troops currently in Ukraine. At the end of last year, Putin announced that 617,000 Russian military personnel were already in the "combat zone".

Accordingly, in a short time it is virtually impossible to create, prepare and secure a group similar in size.

For example, in the fall of 2022, when the "partial mobilization" was announced, Russia was able to recruit about 300,000 new fighters in a month, a couple more months were spent on their training, but even after that, when moving to the combat zone, for a long time, all analysts pointed to the low the quality of Russian "mobikes".

"Russia cannot provide such a group (of 500,000 people) in a short period of time, and it is a very long and not inconspicuous process, to which there will be an appropriate reaction," Kovalenko summarizes.

The factor of surprise could help in the realization of the Kremlin's plans.

In particular, on February 24, 2022, he helped the Russian group consisting of the 15th BTGr (approximately 11-12 thousand fighters) to reach the western outskirts of Kyiv. But now the Russian authorities will not be able to count on him - the Ukrainian army has significantly strengthened the border in the Kharkiv region, having prepared several lines of fortifications.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky, however, emphasizes that one should not ignore the information about the enemy's preparations for offensive actions in the Kharkiv Region. Therefore, the Ukrainian command is taking all measures to "adequately respond to such a possibility."

"If the Russians go there again, then Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them," the head believes.