There were rumors that the energy shortage in Ukraine would worsen because forced repairs of nuclear power units would occur more often due to wear and tear and the constant operation of all capacities 24/7.
Get ready for the fact that this year the probability of a "black winter" is 90%.
Massive shelling by the occupiers has led to Ukraine losing 85% of its thermal generation. Olena Lapenko, an expert in DiXi Group projects, reported this. As a result, the country is currently facing serious difficulties in restoring this generation, and the exact timing of its restoration remains unknown.
The loss of thermal and hydroelectric power plants is a serious blow to shunting generation, which usually compensates for peaks in electricity consumption in the morning and evening. Even in the warm period of the year, the insufficient capacity will not be enough to meet the needs of the population. Lapenko notes that there are currently no clear deadlines for restoration, despite some statements by experts.
According to DiXi Group, between 2022 and 2023, electricity consumption in Ukraine decreased by 25-30% compared to the previous period, the period before the invasion. Industry reduced its consumption by 45%, and the population by 16%. Total electricity generation capacity decreased from 37.6 GW to 18.3 GW. This led to an electricity shortage in the Ukrainian power system in the summer of 2024.
Lapenko indicated that there are three possible scenarios for this period. The first scenario assumes no new attacks on the power system and moderate temperatures, with a deficit of electricity during peak hours of 1.3 GW. The second scenario assumes a significant increase in electricity consumption due to an increase in average daily temperatures, which could lead to an electricity deficit of up to 2.86 GW. The third scenario assumes moderate temperatures with new destruction of shunting generation, which could lead to a deficit of 2.8 GW.
