The law stalled in Congress on the provision of military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan has been causing rapturous hysteria among Russian propagandists who predict Ukraine's collapse for the third month. But is it so? How big is the real danger, and what can we do in response?
Volodymyr Zelenskyi's visit to the US, during which, among other things, he spoke in Congress, is an attempt to unblock American aid. How successful this attempt will be will become clear in the coming days. But Ukraine's ability to influence the situation is quite limited, since the reasons for the suspension of funding are of a purely domestic political nature on the part of the US.
President Joe Biden submitted a $106 billion additional spending request to Congress following the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel. More than half of the money in the proposed package was intended for aid to Ukraine. But the debate over approving the request has stalled over counter-demands from Republicans for tougher immigration policies at the Mexican border.
Aid to allies and problems with migrants
There is no direct connection between the two, and tying military aid and immigration policy into a single package for discussion is essentially a form of blackmail on the part of the Republican Party. But there are serious reasons for this behavior of the Republicans, as well as for the desperate resistance of the Democrats. Both parties are held hostage by the 2024 election, and the growing budget deficit is forcing the U.S. national debt ceiling to rise, leading to a catastrophic increase in the cost of servicing it.
The typical Democratic electorate includes recent immigrants dependent on various welfare programs promoted mostly by the Democratic Party. At the same time, in a number of states, stateless persons are already allowed to participate in elections at the local level.
In turn, the typical Republican electorate, though somewhat diluted recently, is largely unencumbered by welfare programs that attract recent immigrants. The Republican electoral base consists mainly of the working class and retirees and is critically dependent on pension programs.
But the economic situation requires adjustment of the array of social assistance in the direction of cuts. After a long period during which low interest rates allowed the government to borrow trillions of dollars through bond issues without increasing the cost of servicing the national debt to an exorbitant amount, the interest rate on the 10-year bond reached 4.5%. This turns debt payments into the equivalent of a second Department of Defense. And pension programs supported by Republicans are increasingly competing with welfare programs for new US citizens and immigrants promoted by Democrats.
Such competition creates a conflict of electoral interests of the two parties on the eve of the presidential elections, and this situation is truly dangerous for Ukraine. It is all the more dangerous because there are practically no alternative financing options that can bypass the Congress veto. The Lend-Lease program, which never made money due to its uselessness, has already expired and needs to be renewed for 2024. Support from the EU alone, without the participation of the USA, would be possible for about six months - but it is also in question due to the obstructionist position of Hungary, and also, with a high probability, Austria. The creation of a coalition only among the countries that support Ukraine, based on the same Ramstein, rests on the limited capabilities of the European defense industry and on the economic problems of Europe, which are in many respects similar to the American ones. All this coincided with the accumulation in the West, and especially in the USA, of a number of claims against Ukraine, to some extent justified.
In turn, the Kremlin, seeing the difficult situation that has arisen in connection with the decrease in the flow of Western aid, increases the pressure on Ukraine in all possible ways, frankly playing all-in. Moscow is encouraged to do so by the upcoming "Putin elections" in March of next year, before which the Kremlin needs to show the Russians at least some success. In addition, even in the case of successfully overcoming the resistance of the Republicans in Congress and reaching a compromise between the parties, the amount of aid to Ukraine will inevitably be cut, simply by the logic of pre-election competition.
All this, taken together, leads to the fact that 2024, even under the best possible scenario for Ukraine, will become a year of deaf defense for us. Control over the targeted use of Western aid will be stricter, and advice on Ukraine's actions on the battlefield will become more binding. At the same time, at least until the March elections to the Russian Federation, and possibly to the presidential elections in the United States, Russia will use all available funds to break through the Ukrainian defense "here and now", absolutely regardless of the large losses or the distant consequences of these decisions . The Kremlin understands that they will most likely not get a second chance to finish off Ukraine. The pressure on us will include not only frontline operations, but also information sabotage, cyber warfare, as well as attempts to shake Ukraine from the inside. They will be subjected to especially harsh Russian attacks, and, in fact, are already undergoing mobilization measures. In other words, the next six months will probably be the most difficult period of the war. Perhaps even more difficult than its initial stage.
This, as far as can be judged, was brought to President Zelenskyi during his visit to Washington.
What to expect from Washington
And yet, when will the congressional veto be overridden? And what are our future prospects?
Unfortunately, no guarantees can be given regarding the resumption of funding. The situation is really very, very serious. As historical experience shows, domestic problems of the US always prevail over foreign policy problems. Thus, during the Second World War, Lend-Lease became fully operational only after the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, although the law on it was adopted back in March.
Working in our favor is the fact that the majority of US citizens do support resistance to the aggressive plans of Russia, in which the West increasingly sees the reincarnation of the Third Reich. From an electoral point of view, it is not profitable for the Republicans to "let go" of Ukraine in circumstances where it can be blamed on them, and a compromise will most likely be found. Although there are politicians in the ranks of the GOP who are in favor of exchanging Ukraine for other agreements with Moscow, their support groups are still in the minority.
At the same time, overcoming the congressional veto will close the question of receiving aid from the US only for 2024. And Trump's possible election victory at the end of 2024 could mean the end of American aid to Ukraine in 2025, although this is not necessarily the case.
Currently, Trump avoids commenting in detail on his actions in the Russian-Ukrainian direction in the event of his return to the White House. It is limited to promises to close the issue of the war in Ukraine within a few days. Exactly what actions he will succeed in remains a factor of uncertainty. And the point here is not that Trump is an unsolvable mystery, but all the same priority of internal problems of the US over external ones, which are traditionally more pronounced in the politics of Republican administrations compared to democratic ones. This means that, under certain conditions, Trump can even increase aid to Ukraine and strengthen his attitude towards Russia. But, on the contrary, it is possible to compromise with Moscow at our expense. In this case, we will face the threat of being forced to surrender Crimea and four regions that Russia has already declared as part of its territory. Then, probably, a fragile world will come for several years, after which Moscow will try to finish off Ukraine for good, provoking a civil war in all its still unoccupied territory. This will be followed by a new intervention, occupation and artificial famine combined with repression to completely suppress Ukrainian resistance. In general, we are talking about a repetition of the scenario of occupation and violent radicalization of Ukraine in 1918-40. This plan is already openly discussed in the Russian public, with an estimate of how many millions of Ukrainians will have to be forced to emigrate, and how many will be destroyed.
In this extremely difficult situation for us, we can fend off threats in the only way: by creating and expanding our own military industry. They are talking about it in Bankova, and our Western allies agree with it. They are ready to help us in this matter as well, in the form of non-state investment.
