In 2024, Ukraine is at risk of default due to a significant external debt, a budget deficit of almost $40 billion, and a serious economic and infrastructural crisis.
At the beginning of 2024, Ukraine faces a lack of Western funding, as neither Europe nor the US have allocated the necessary billions to support the economy, social security and defense spending. As a result, the Ukrainian budget is empty, and there are no own funds.
If funding is not received in the near future, Kyiv may find itself in a situation where there are no funds even to pay salaries and pensions. Economy Minister Yuliya Svyridenko emphasizes the threat of delayed payments, which could affect more than half a million civil servants, 1.4 million teachers and 10 million pensioners.
At the same time, the prospects of Ukraine receiving funding from the event in 2024 are uncertain. In the US, where it is an election year, the popularity of President Biden and the Democrats who support Ukraine is at an all-time low. The trend is similar in Europe. The presidential elections in the USA in 2024 will be a defining moment for the financing of Ukraine in the future.
According to the approved budget, Ukraine needs $41 billion from allies: $18 billion from the EU, $8.5 billion from the United States, $5.4 billion from the IMF, $1.5 billion from other banks and $1 billion from Great Britain. The main risk for the Ukrainian economy in 2024 is insufficient financing of the state budget. This may lead to a devaluation of the hryvnia, especially given the National Bank's rejection of a fixed dollar exchange rate. The authorities may be forced to delay the payment of pensions and salaries, as well as reduce the hryvnia exchange rate to 50 hryvnias per dollar. This, in turn, can lead to mass protests, similar to Maidan-3, and contribute to the migration of the economically active population.
