The Armed Forces of Ukraine surprised the world with their invasion of the Kursk region of Russia, which became one of the most unexpected and daring steps during the war. However, how long will Ukraine be able to keep this territory? According to Professor Michael Clarke, Sky News security and defense analyst, this military maneuver is not part of Ukraine's long-term strategy and is likely to last only a few weeks.
Professor Clark believes that the main reason for the limited detention time is the pressure that this fact creates on the Kremlin. For Vladimir Putin, preserving the territorial integrity of Russia is a key aspect of his political survival. According to the analyst, the Russian leadership must clearly demonstrate that "Russian land is sacred" and that an invasion of Russian territory will not remain without a harsh response. Given that Russia has not suffered such an invasion since 1941, the incident is a real challenge for Putin, who cannot afford to show weakness at this point.
On the other hand, Clark emphasizes that Ukraine does not need to hold this area for a long time. The political effect has already been achieved: the Ukrainian invasion created a new front and demonstrated Kyiv's strength and determination. This move attracted the attention of the international community and increased support from the West.
Clark notes that the Armed Forces do not set themselves the goal of holding the Kursk region for a long time. In his opinion, Ukrainian troops will consider their mission accomplished if they can hold the captured territory for a month or six weeks. During this time, they may try to make the most of the situation to strengthen their position in the war, after which they will probably plan to withdraw their forces from the region.
The Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region is an important tactical move, which, however, is unlikely to turn into a long-term occupation. Professor Michael Clark is convinced that the main task of Ukraine in this maneuver was to create political and military pressure on Russia, which has already borne fruit. However, realistic forecasts indicate that holding this territory is unlikely to last more than a few weeks.
