The epic with the alleged resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (FSU) Valery Zaluzhny unfolded, a story that lasted only a few hours, but caused a wave of nervous tension among millions of Ukrainians.
In the second half of Monday, January 29, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed his desire to meet with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces to discuss the situation at the front. This happened when the head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, was at negotiations in Uzhgorod.
President Zelenskyi, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhnyi and Minister of Defense Rustem Umyerov took part in the meeting held at Bankova. According to sources, the meeting took place in a calm tone. However, according to information, the president has announced his decision to dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, and a decree on this will be signed in the near future.
Information about Zaluzhny's resignation began to spread rapidly in social networks after six o'clock in the evening. This process took place in parallel in two directions, causing lively discussions among citizens.
The case surrounding the alleged resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, has extremely activated anonymous telegram channels, which, according to some information sources, may have a connection with the President's Office.
Despite the fact that Bankova's representatives regularly deny their involvement in these channels, they often become the source of exclusives from the presidential administration, and even receive invitations to off-the-record meetings in the President's Office.
On the other hand, other sources, who can hardly be suspected of sympathy for Zelenskyi, also reported on this event, citing their sources. The tone of the messages varied from assurances that nothing serious was happening in the country to predictions of various troubles for the President's Office.
After seven o'clock in the evening, the information about Zaluzhny's resignation became a fact, which was confirmed by influential Ukrainian mass media, referring to their own sources.
But at 7:41 p.m., only one and a half hours later, officially announcing this, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine rejected these rumors in its telegram post, calling them false. Later, at 7:23 p.m., the representative of the Ministry of Defense Hilarion Pavlyuk in a comment to the BBC confirmed that Zaluzhnyi did not resign.
At 8:05 p.m., the press secretary of the president Serhiy Nikiforov in an interview with "Ukrainian Pravda" refused information about Zaluzhny's resignation, claiming that "the president definitely did not fire the head commissar."
Only at 8:20 p.m., the President's Office issued Volodymyr Zelenskyi's daily address, where there was no mention of a meeting with the Commander-in-Chief or his resignation. Only then did it become clear that January 29 would not be Valery Zaluzhny's last working day.
There are many unknown factors in the situation related to the supposed resignation of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, which make it mysterious. First of all, why exactly did the president decide to suspend Zaluzhnyi right now?
The friendship between Volodymyr Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny long ago turned into a problem that is difficult to hide. The conflict between the military and political leadership began in April 2022, after the retreat of Russian troops from Kyiv.
General Zaluzhny, although he is not a figure in the criminal case about the insufficient organization of defense in the south of Ukraine, discussed it with the SBI investigators. However, the president secretly but openly expresses his dissatisfaction with the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. Even MP Maryana Bezugla, who is associated with the head of the President's Office, criticizes Zaluzhnyi on social networks.
The reasons for the sharp cooling of relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny remain mysterious. Some commentators believe that the reason may be the authorities' jealousy of the high level of trust and support that the population shows for Zaluzhny, who is already being called a real competitor of Zelenskyi in the upcoming presidential elections.
Others point to the different views of Zaluzhny and Zelenskyi on the course of the war and its further development. Despite this, the details and the exact reason for the resignation remain unknown.
Recently, Zelenskyi considered the possibility of sending Zaluzhnyi to resign. Legally, the president has the right to issue a resignation decree without any additional explanations or justifications.
However, what exactly inspired the president to decide to inform Zaluzhnyi about his imminent resignation personally on January 29, remains a mystery. The situation at the front showed no significant changes, and the crash of the Russian IL-76 near Belgorod currently remains inaccessible to the general public. However, the president justified the need for Zaluzhny's resignation by the desire to reboot the national security and defense system of Ukraine. So far, no information has been received about other possible personnel changes in the force, military and law enforcement structures.
Another unknown part of this story is the reason why the president did not issue a decree on Zaluzhny's resignation immediately after he informed the general of his decision.
According to the interlocutors of the BBC in political circles, there are two main options for answering this question, leaving aside the version that Bankova hesitated because of the loud negative reaction in social networks.
According to the first option, Kyiv's western partners intervened in the situation, expressing sharp disapproval of Zaluzhny's resignation. This explanation can be easily confirmed, given Ukraine's complete dependence on Western military and financial support. Now the provision of multibillion-dollar tranches of both European and American aid promises to become a critical task for Kyiv.
Foreign media also report that Western leaders strongly recommend Kyiv to switch to strategic defense, which Zaluzhny actually supports. The dismissal of the commander-in-chief, especially without the prior consent of the event, could cause a "refusal" to implement this decision by Zelenskyi. The West seems to have enough clout to insist on its approach to the issue.
The second possible reason that prevented the issuance of the decree on Zaluzhny's resignation may be the problem with the appointment of a new commander-in-chief. Ukrainian mass media point to two main contenders for this position: Kyryl Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, and Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ground Forces.
But sources of the BBC note that both generals do not show a desire to take Zaluzhnyi's place and refused this appointment. According to them, the main problem is that any new commander-in-chief will automatically be compared with the previous, extremely popular Valery Zaluzhny.
According to the December poll of the KMIS, 92% of Ukrainians trust Zaluzhny, while 60% trust Budanov, and 33% Syrskyi (it should be noted that about half of Ukrainians do not know the latter).
It follows from this that even with the new appointment of the head of the Armed Forces, there is no immediate guarantee of an improvement in the situation on the front line or the development of new strategies for the provision of the military. The task of defeating the Russian army is extremely difficult, and mobilization must be intensified regardless of the personality of the commander-in-chief.
The appointment of a new leader may also impose on him the status of a "political nomination" or "handy general of Bankova", which may create difficulties in his relations with the Ukrainian military. In such a situation, the new commander-in-chief may become an object of criticism, being considered a tool of political forces. Such a leader, regardless of his officer experience and military qualifications, may be vulnerable to such a perception.
The intervention of Kyiv's Western partners may affect the appointment, especially if they disagree with the president's decision. In particular, their recommendations on strategic defense, embodied by Zaluzhny, can have a significant impact.
On the other hand, in wartime, the presidential decision must be carried out, and any new commander-in-chief must abide by it. The refusal of any general to comply with the president's decision is unacceptable, especially in the context of a conflict.
Thus, the appointment of a new head of the Armed Forces may be a challenge for the candidate, but in the conditions of war, the presidential decision must be recognized and implemented.
As for future events, interlocutors of the BBC in the defense sector of Ukraine believe that the resignation of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces is only a matter of time.
The differences between Zelensky and Zaluzhny reached a critical point, turning into personal contradictions. Not only the issues of strategy and future actions on the frontline become a problem, but also the personal relations between these completely different personalities. The lack of mutual trust, which is critical to successful warfare, complicates the situation Ukraine faces in the conflict with Russia.
The president has the legal right to make such decisions, but their consequences for the political and international community are difficult to predict. How will Ukraine's western partners, who expect predictable and reasonable steps in managing the country, perceive this step?
It is important to take into account that the communications of the President's Office, in particular Monday's, leave much to be desired, which may affect the perception of such decisions at the international level. How will Ukrainian society react to the resignation of the highly popular commander-in-chief, "father Zaluzhny"? The KMIS survey showed that only 2% of Ukrainians support replacing Zaluzhny with another general, while 72% expressed their disapproval of such a decision.
In a December interview with the BBC, sociologist Oleksiy Antipovich emphasized that Zaluzhnyi's resignation is not suicide, but it may be a negative decision that will have a bad effect on citizens' perception of the situation. Such an action by the authorities can demonstrate the lack of unity, which is a key value of the Ukrainian society united in the conditions of war.
Zaluzhny's resignation is not just a change of one general for another, it is a violation of the informal agreement of the Ukrainian government with society that politicians do not interfere in military matters, and the military does not engage in politics.
"Having dismissed Zaluzhnyi, Zelensky becomes not only a political leader, but also a military one. Even after appointing an ideal general in his place, he takes responsibility. Leaders like Churchill or Roosevelt knew the limits of their responsibility... When a political leader interferes in military matters without understanding war, it can have negative consequences," said Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Strategy XXI Global Studies Center.
Probably, in the event of Zaluzhnyi's resignation, Ukrainians will not take to the streets, and the military will not turn their bayonets against Kyiv, but this may affect the general mood of society and support for the authorities. Opinions of experts are divided, but many of them believe that the resignation of Zaluzhny can cause negative reactions among citizens and reduce support for the authorities, especially in the conditions of a military conflict.
Some experts see Zaluzhny as a potential political leader, an election favorite if he decides to participate in politics. The general himself has not yet expressed any political ambitions and refrains from commenting on Monday's events. However, he published a selfie on Facebook in which he is pictured next to the head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Serhii Shaptala, which may indicate continued military service and cooperation.
